电力系统运行风险评估中元件时变停运模型分析  

Analysis of a Time-varying Power Component Outage Model for Operation Risk Assessment

作　　者：宁辽逸[1] 吴文传[1] 张伯明[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学电机系电力系统国家重点实验室,北京市100084

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2009年第16期7-12,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2004CB217908);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50707013)~~

摘　　要：电力系统设备发生故障的可能性是随外部天气条件、老化程度等运行工况变化而变的,因此在运行风险评估中需要采用时变的设备停运模型。文中对现有文献中故障率的定义进行了分类和分析,论证了泊松过程停运模型中的故障率和马尔可夫过程停运模型中的状态转移速率之间的关系,并给出了时变故障率下的马尔可夫过程建模的条件和建模方法。基于上述结论,进一步提出对于暴露型设备停运可采用马尔可夫过程模型描述;而封闭型设备必须采用非马尔可夫模型。最后,给出典型暴露型设备(架空线路)和典型封闭型设备(变压器)的时变停运模型,并进行了算例分析。A time-varying and condition-based component outage model is needed for operation risk assessment, which should consider the change of weather, aging degree and other operation conditions. Various existing definitions of the failure rate, the hazard rate and their relation are well analyzed. The relationship between the failure rate in Poisson process model and the state transition rate in Markov process model is presented. The conditions and the method to formulate component outage models using Markov process in time-varying condition are introduced. Based on the above research, in can be concluded that Markov model is fit for overhead transmission lines and the non-Markov model must be used for transformers. Finally, two different time-varying component outage models for overhead transmission line and transformer are developed respectively. The numerical examples are also presented. This work is supported by Special Fund of the National Basic Research Program of China （No. 2004CB217908） and National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 50707013）.

关 键 词：运行风险评估 元件停运模型 时变 泊松过程 马尔可夫过程 故障率 状态转移速率 延迟更新过程 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]