城市燃气管线风险评估  

Risk assessment of urban gas pipeline

作　　者：刘茂[1] 刘斐[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2009年第4期84-91,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金："十五"国家科技攻关课题(2004BA803B05-03)

摘　　要：城市燃气管线是城市的重大危险源,事故后果多为燃气泄漏后发生的火灾、爆炸造成人员伤亡及建筑物坍塌,其风险评估方法的研究对于燃气管线的风险管理非常重要。对管线发生断裂的事故概率及其热辐射伤害进行了分析。引入了管线的致死长度,并定义其为在此管线长度内的失效能对特定地点的人产生致死效应。在此基础上,进行了个人风险的定量计算,即管线失效率与致死长度的乘积,并基于个人风险的可接受水平确定了管线的危险距离,为抢险救援工作提供参考。Urban gas and explosion due to 1 pipeline is one of the important hazardous source, the serious consequence is usually the fire eakage of natural gas so as to bring hazard to the vicinity. The quantitative risk assessment is very important to its risk management . This paper focuses on the pipeline leakage probability and its consequence due to the characteristic of pipeline and natural gas and estimates the individual risk. Individual risk can be got from the pipeline failure probability which is calculated by historical data and the pipeline fatal length which is calculated by measuring the length of pipeline within three zones of 100%-99%, 99%-50% and 50%-1% lethality and corresponding lethality prababilities. The pipeline hazardous distance is designed based on the acceptable criteria of individual risk to support the emergence rescue and planning of pipeline.

关 键 词：燃气管线 失效 风险分析 泄漏率 热辐射 个人风险 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]