基于可靠度的多年冻土区路基稳定性评价及应用分析  

RELIABILITY BASED AHP-FUZZY SYNTHETIC EVALUATION SYSTEM FOR STABILITY OF ROADBEDS IN PERMAFROST REGIONS

作　　者：马立峰[1] 刘建坤[1] 牛富俊[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学土木工程学院,北京100044 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《工程地质学报》2009年第4期522-527,共6页Journal of Engineering Geology

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才计划(NCET-05-0092);科技部支撑计划(2006BAC07B02);自然科学基金国际合作项目(40640420072);中科院"西部之光"联合学者项目

摘　　要：通过对多年冻土区道路路基稳定性的分析和研究,从冻土类型、温度、厚度、地质地貌单元以及工程条件5个方面选取了12项对多年冻土区路基稳定影响较大的因素作为评价指标,建立了冻土路基稳定性评价指标体系。基于安全可靠度并考虑各个影响因素之间的关系,运用层次分析法和模糊数学理论确定冻土区路基稳定状况的模糊综合评价模型,提出了基于安全可靠度的用于评价多年冻土区路基稳定的模糊综合评价方法,并结合青藏公路清水河段进行实例分析,结果表明,在该段公路实施热棒处理措施前后,其路基稳定性评价系统可靠度分别为0.48和0.55,与该段公路实际运营过程中路基稳定状态相一致,即由不稳定到稳定,进一步对布设热棒后路基稳定性进行二级模糊综合评价,其评价系统得分为63.74分。Based on research of the stability of roadbeds in permafrost regions, an evaluation system for stability of roadbeds is constructed in this paper. Twelve factors influencing the stability of roadbeds are selected as the evalua- tion indices. Five aspects are considered in the evaluation system. They are permafrost type, temperature, thick- ness, geological conditions and project management. The safety reliability and relationships of each factor are con- sidered. The fuzzy synthetic model is built by adopting AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory. And the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method is advanced based on the safety reliability. At last, the case of Qinghai - Tibet highway in Qing- shuihe section is calculated and analyzed with the proposed method. The results are consistent with the field observations.

关 键 词：多年冻土 安全可靠度 路基稳定性 层次分析法 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：P642.14[天文地球—工程地质学]