我国产业安全监测预警指数的构建及其应用  

Construction and Application of the Measure and Early-Warning Index for Industrial Security in China

作　　者：金成晓[1] 俞婷婷 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心

出　　处：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2009年第4期125-132,共8页Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：教育部规划基金项目(08JA790053);吉林大学“985工程”项目“中国宏观经济分析与预测”创新基地

摘　　要：在吸收和采纳国内外现有产业安全主要评价指标基础上,充分考虑国民经济运行所包含的诸方面(包括金融环境、信息环境、能源环境等)对产业安全评价的影响,补充设计一组新的指标;同时从产业发展的动态角度模仿层次分析法的结构构建三级评价指标体系,并结合因子分析和专家评判法逐层简化评价指标体系,进一步构建产业安全监测预警指数。为了验证评价指标体系的合理性和可操作性,充分理解产业安全监测预警指数的内涵和原理,我们以制造业历年数据为例,详细地展示了制造业产业安全监测预警指数的构建过程及其结果,全面客观评价了我国制造业产业安全状况的动态变化过程。This paper on the base of absorbing and adopting the existed key evaluation indexes of industrial security globally,to design a new set of indexes for supplement in order to make a reasonable observation of the influences of national economic environment on industrial security evaluation sufficiently. The items of national economic security that we mentioned include financial environment,information environment,energy environment etc. At the same time,in the perspective of industrial development,we imitate the structure of AHP to construct a three-level evaluation index system. Moreover,we combine factors analysis with Delphi method to simplify the evaluation index system step by step. In order to validate rationality and maneuverability of the evaluation index system,as well as to comprehend sufficiently the connotation and the principle of the measure and early-warning index for industrial security,this paper takes manufacturing data over the years for cases.

关 键 词：产业安全 评价指标 监测预警指数 制造业 因子分析 

分 类 号：X922[环境科学与工程—安全科学]