科技进步与产业结构优化升级互动关系的实证研究  

Empirical Study on the Interactive Relationship Between the Scientific and Technological Progress and Industrial Structure Optimization and Upgrade

作　　者：赵新华[1] 李晓欢[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,长沙410079

出　　处：《科技与经济》2009年第4期12-16,共5页Science & Technology and Economy

基　　金：国家软科学重大项目--"科技进步对经济发展贡献率研究"(项目编号:2008GXS1B022)成果之一

摘　　要：通过构建衡量我国科技进步水平和产业结构水平的指标体系,采用因子分析法,分别将衡量科技进步水平的20个变量与产业结构优化水平的11个变量进行了数据浓缩,并通过协整分析、脉冲响应分析以及格兰杰(Granger)因果检验分析了1987-2007年我国科技进步水平与产业结构优化水平之间的互动关系。研究结果表明,科技进步水平与产业结构优化升级具有长期的协整关系;科技进步是产业结构优化升级的格兰杰成因,反之,产业结构不是科技进步的格兰杰成因;脉冲响应分析得出科技进步的一个单位的冲击对产业结构具有正向反应,而产业结构一个单位的冲击对科技进步具有负向反应。以上结果表明我国科技进步对产业结构优化升级具有明显的促进作用,但我国现有的产业结构水平对科技水平不具有显著促进作用。In this paper,an indicator system is built to measure the level of scientific and technological progress and industrial structure level in China. Factor Analysis is used to concentrate both 20 variables measuring the level of technological progress and 11 variables measuring the level of industrial structure. Through co-integration analysis, impulse response analysis and the Granger causality test, it analyzes the interaction between the level of scientific and technological progress and the industrial structure optimization in China from 1987-2007. The results show that there has been a long Co- integration relationship between the level of scientific and technological progress and the industrial structure optimization and upgrade ： scientific and technological progress is a Granger cause of the industrial structure optimization and upgrade. On the contrary, the industrial structure is not a Granger cause of scientific and technological progress; Impulse response analysis shows an innovation on the scientific and technological progress has a positive impact on the industrial structure. But an innovation on industrial structure has a negative impact on scientific and technological progress. These results show that the scientific and technological progress in China obviously gives a promotion to the industrial structure, but the existing industrial structure level does not give a promotion to the scientific and technological progress in China.

关 键 词：因子分析 产业结构 协整分析 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：G322[文化科学] F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F224