煤炭需求预测模型分析  

Analysis of prediction model on coal demand

作　　者：蔡武[1] 袁莎莎[2] 张强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学矿业工程学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]中国矿业大学计算机科学与技术学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《露天采矿技术》2009年第4期91-93,共3页Opencast Mining Technology

摘　　要：基于最小二乘曲线拟合、灰色预测和最优组合模型,提出了全国煤炭需求量的预测模型,并利用各模型预测了全国2009-2013年的煤炭需求量。最后,对3种模型的预测结果作了分析,得出结论:最优组合预测模型从总体上起到了提高预测精度的作用,用此方法进行预测是有效的,预测的结果是可信的。Based on the model of least squares curve fitting, gray prediction and optimal combination, a model for forecasting the coal demand is put forward, With the model ,prediction is made of the coal demand from 2009 to 2013.Finally, the predictable results of the three models are discussed, come to the conclusion： the optimal combination forecasting model on the whole plays a role in improving prediction accuracy, using this method is effective, the predictable results are credible.

关 键 词：煤炭需求 最小二乘曲线拟合 灰色预测 最优组合预测 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]