我国农业气象灾害评估研究现状和发展方向  

Research Overview and Development Trend on the Assessment of Agrometeorological Disasters in China

作　　者：余卫东[1,2] 张弘[1,2] 刘伟昌[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450003 [2]中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2009年第3期73-77,共5页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：河南省气象局科研项目(Z200806)资助

摘　　要：介绍了当前我国农业气象灾害评估中常用的方法和研究成果,对综合模型评估、作物模型评估和灾害风险评估等方法进行了评价,认为目前农业气象灾害评估中存在的主要问题有定量评估能力仍显不足、作物机理模型应用有待加强及灾害风险评价理论和方法有待完善等,未来的发展趋势主要是作物模型的应用将加强、农业气象灾害风险评估将进一步完善和综合评估技术向多元化发展等。Based on summing up the usual method and research achievements of the assessment of agrometeorogical disasters, this paper discusses the comprehensive evaluation model, crop simulation evaluation model and disaster risk comprehensive evaluation model. The existing problems of agrometeo- rogical disasters assessment are mainly as follows ： the ability of quantitative evaluation is inadequate, the application of crop mechanism simulation model must to be strengthened, and the further improvement and development of the theory and methods of risk assessment are also awaited. The application of crop simulation model, the agrometeorogical disaster risk evaluation and the multi-type assessment technology will be the trends of the future development.

关 键 词：农业气象灾害 评估 研究现状 发展趋势 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护]