鄱阳湖洪水灾害与太阳活动周期相关性研究  

Correlation between the Cycles of Solar Activities and the Flood Occurrences in the Poyang Lake

作　　者：占腊生[1] 袁文亮 闵骞 李翠云[1] 

机构地区：[1]景德镇陶瓷学院,江西景德镇333001 [2]景德镇第一中专,江西景德镇333000 [3]江西省鄱阳湖水文局,江西九江332800

出　　处：《天文研究与技术》2009年第3期175-180,共6页Astronomical Research & Technology

基　　金：江西省自然科学基金(0612027);景德镇陶瓷学院博士科研基金

摘　　要：鄱阳湖是洪水灾害频发地区,1755年至2008年,共计23个太阳活动周的254年内,鄱阳湖发生洪水年份101次,发生洪水的比率为39.76%,平均每个太阳活动周期内发生洪水4.39次。鄱阳湖发生洪水的频次与太阳活动磁周期无关。太阳活动极期发生鄱阳湖洪水的概率较高,在太阳活动极大期和极小期发生洪水的概率分别为47.82%和60.86%,在同一太阳活动周期内极大期和极小期同时发生洪水的概率较小。一般情况下不会出现连续三个极期都发生洪水的现象,若不考虑太阳活动极期的洪水发生次数,太阳活动周下降期发生洪水的概率最小。Floods rather frequently occur in the region of the Poyang Lake： among the years 1755 to 2008, which are about 23 cycles of solar activities, the fraction with flood occurrences is 39.76%. On average, there are about 4. 39 flood occurrences per cycle of solar activities in the region of the Poyang Lake. Our statistics show that there is little correlation between the frequencies of the flood occurrences and the solar magnetic activity cycles. On the other hand, the frequency of the flood occurrences of the Poyang Lake appears very high during an extreme phase of solar activities： the probability of flooding is 47.82% or 60.86% during the ll-year solar-cycle maximum or minimum, respectively. However, it is rare for floods to occur in both maximum and minimum phases of the same cycle of solar activities. Usually, floods do not occur in all of the three consecutive extreme phases of a cycle of solar activities either. The floods happen least frequently during the descending of solar actitities phases excluding the extreme phases.

关 键 词：太阳活动 鄱阳湖 洪水灾害 

分 类 号：P182.9[天文地球—天文学]