基于C-D函数的地下水动态变化对不同农作物产量和灌溉量的响应——以新疆奇台县平原井灌区为例  

Response of the Groundwater Dynamic Change Based on C.W.Cobb-P.H.Douglas Function Model to the Different Crop Yield and Irrigation Amount——A Case Study of Well-based Irrigation Area in Qitai County in Xinjing

作　　者：陈西玫[1] 熊黑钢[1,2] 赵明燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]北京联合大学应用文理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2009年第4期137-141,共5页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40771194);北京市属高等学校人才强教计划资助项目(PHR200906125);教育部绿洲重点实验室(XJDX0208-2004-07)

摘　　要：根据奇台县平原井灌区的地下水埋深观测数据、野外调查数据、社会经济数据和农业气象资料,借助柯尔-道格拉斯生产函数,建立了根据不同农作物产量变化的地下水埋深变化生产函数模型。模拟结果显示:粮食作物产量对地下水埋深的影响最大,蔬菜瓜果次之,经济作物影响最小。它们每增加1%,引起的地下水位埋深平均增加的幅度分别是0.639%,0.120%和0.205%。模型通过了精度检验(r=0.987,P<0.0001),模拟结果与实测埋深值拟合较好,模拟精度的相对误差都小于5%。同时,由反映农作物灌溉耗水量与地下水埋深变化之间关系的公式得知:灌溉粮食作物引起的地下水下降幅度最大,占总下降幅度的70.4%,每年可使地下水位下降0.339 2m/a。灌溉蔬菜瓜果引起的地下水位下降的比重和速率(14.8%,0.071 5 m/a)略高于灌溉经济作物产生的变化(14.7%;0.0709 m/a)。According to data on groundwater depth, field survey, and agrometeorological data, the groundwater depth dynamic change model based on the Cobb-Douglas Production Function was simulated. It had been passed the accuracy test. According to the elastic coefficients to the model, the influences were grain crop yield （0. 639）〉vegetable and melon yield（0. 205）〉human factor（0. 143）〉economic crop yield （0. 120）〉annual mean temperature（0. 063）〉annual precipitation（0. 024） in turn. And the major role cau sing the decline of groundwater level was calculated on the basis of the above simulations. The results showed that the major role among the crops, grain crop yield was the first, being 0. 356 m/a, while cash crop yield is the least, being 0. 073 m/a. On the other hand, the calculation of decline of groundwater caused by irrigation displayed that grain crop also occupies the first position, being 0. 339 m/a. While cash crop is still the least, being 0. 071 m/a. The errors between the two results above were all less than 5%. With the decline of groundwater level, a series ecological and environmental problems had been caused which had become the key factors restricting the socio-economic sustainable development of Qitai. There-fore, it is the key time to adjust planting structure in order to achieve sustainable use of the groundwater in the Qitai.

关 键 词：奇台县 农作物 地下水埋深 生产函数 地下水下降幅度 

分 类 号：F303.4[经济管理—产业经济] TV211.12[水利工程—水文学及水资源]