基于产出缺口估计的通货膨胀压力测度研究  

Inflation Pressure Measurement Based on Output Gap Estimates

作　　者：贾德奎[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计学院中国立信风险管理研究院,上海201620

出　　处：《经济经纬》2009年第4期21-23,共3页Economic Survey

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(08CJY002);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(07JC790055);上海市教育发展基金会晨光计划项目(2007CG71);上海市教委高水平特色发展项目"金融信用知识创新体系"资助

摘　　要：笔者利用HP滤波方法估计中国近年的产出缺口状况,并建立描述中国宏观经济中产出缺口与通货膨胀之间关系的菲利普斯曲线方程式,最后采用计量方法进行实证研究发现,持续偏快的经济增长率是中国近年来出现通货膨胀的主要因素。基于此,中国政策当局应当坚持货币政策稳定物价的单一调控目标,并通过控制经济增长速度,来避免宏观经济中出现严重的通货膨胀。The author uses HP fiher wave to estimate the output gap in China in recent years and establishes Philips curve equation which describes the relationship between inflation and the output gap in China＇ s macro economy and makes an empirical study with the measurement method. It is found that the continuously quick economic growth rate is the leading reason for the inflation in China in recent years. Therefore the Chinese authority should insist on the single control target that monetary policy stabilizes price and control the speed of economic growth to avoid serious inflation in macro economy.

关 键 词：通货膨胀压力 P—Star 产出缺口 菲利普斯曲线 

分 类 号：F123.9[经济管理—世界经济]