长三角南翼地区未来地震影响研究  

Prediction of Earthquake Motion in the South of Yangtze River Delta Region

作　　者：赵伯明[1] 陈靖[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院,北京100044 [2]中国铁道科学研究院电子计算技术研究所,北京100088

出　　处：《沈阳建筑大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第4期625-629,共5页Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2008BAC38B04);国家自然科学基金项目(40674016);科技部地震行业基金项目(2007203/8-53);天津市科技创新专项基金项目(07FDZDSF02102)

摘　　要：目的根据国家"十五"期间对长三角南翼地区的调查结果,该地区未来具有发生中强度潜在地震的可能性,研究地震发生时地震影响范围和强度,提高相关城市和土木工程整体抗震减灾能力.方法应用确定性的数理计算方法结合概率性的统计学方法而开发的评价方法,计算应用该地区三维地下层结构模型、基于活断层探测和危险性评价而建立的震源模型.结果预测结果表明萧山-球川断裂(F1)具有比较确定的影响范围,影响范围涉及杭州市区和东部地区,高值区集中于断层周围,最大加速度值可达250 cm/s2.断层的空间展布以及其周围的地质条件对于地震产生的空间危害范围具有显著的影响作用.结论预测结果为今后可能发生的罕遇地震的一种结果,可为考虑区域环境条件下城市和重要工程的抗震减灾工作提供科学的数据.According to the investigation results during the period of the tenth five-year plan, it is possible for the South of Yangtze River Delta region to have potential medium-intensity earthquake in the future. In order to improve the seismic resistance performance of civil engineering and reduce the earthquake disaster, it is very necessary to study the incidence and intensity of the earthquake. By applying the deterministic mathematical method combined with the probabilistic and statistic evaluation method,3D velocity structures of the sedimentary basin is performed based on the Active Faults and Seismic Hazard Assessment. The results indicate that Xiaoshan-Qiuchuan fault has the relatively determinate incidence which relates to Hangzhou urban city and the eastern areas. In the range, the high values mainly appear around the fault, and the maximum acceleration reaches 250 cm/s^2. The spatial arrangement of the fault as well as the surrounding geological conditions has the obvious impact on hazard range caused by earthquake, the results provide a scientific statistics for valuating the important engineering structure based on strong ground motions near-fault considering local geological conditions.

关 键 词：萧山-球川断裂 强地震动 长三角南翼地区 区域场地条件 

分 类 号：TU982[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]