城市自然生态安全动态评价方法及其应用  

A dynamic evaluation method for urban natural ecological security and its application

作　　者：赵清[1] 杨志峰[1] 陈彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《生态学报》2009年第8期4138-4146,共9页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(973)(2005CB724204);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40871056)

摘　　要：城市自然系统是城市社会经济发展的重要载体。城市自然生态安全评价最重要目的在于对未来可能出现的不安全状态预测和预警,以实现对城市生命支持系统——自然系统的可持续生态安全管理。针对目前城市生态安全评价方法实用性与可操作性差的缺点,基于城市自然生态安全因果互动关系,建立城市自然生态安全发展度动态评价方法,实现了对未来城市自然生态不安全状态的预警以及关键影响要素的识别。以厦门为例的评价结果表明,2007~2020年厦门自然生态不安全发展度将处于持续恶化蓝灯（轻度）预警的变化态势,其主导因素将是快速发展的对生态安全负反馈的来自社会经济系统的外部驱动;各子系统生态不安全程度排序为：大气系统〉水系统〉土地系统〉生物系统。大气系统和水系统各项调控措施的发展度需予以提高。In view of urban natural system as an important carrier of urban socio-economic development,the most important aim of urban natural ecological security（UNES） assessment is to forecast and predict the potential ecological insecurity,thereby contributing to sustainable ecological security management of the life support system.Regarding the shortage of operationality and utility of the current method,a dynamic method of UNES developmental degree assessment was set up in this paper based on the identification of its critical factors and warning of the potential ecological insecurity.Xiamen city was taken as a case to develop a suit of UNES indicator system based on its natural environment characteristics.The results showed that the development degree of Xiamen natural ecological insecurity（NEI） will in blue（mild） warning status and sustainable enlarged trend during 2007-2020.The critical factor will be the external driving force of socio-economic system with continuously increased negative feedback.The degree of ecological insecurity can be ranked as： atmosphere subsystem water subsystem land subsystem biology subsystem.It is necessary to speed up the development degree of regulation measures of these subsystems.

关 键 词：城市 自然生态安全 动态评价 厦门市 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]