北京市城区居民烟草消费和大气污染对肺癌死亡率的影响  

Influence of Tobacco Consumption and Air Pollution on Lung Cancer Mortality of Permanent Residents in Beijing Urban Area

作　　者：张国钦[1] 王宁[2] 王涛[1] 祝伟星[2] 曲宸绪[2] 邢秀梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,北京100191 [2]北京大学临床肿瘤学院北京肿瘤医院暨北京市肿瘤防治研究所恶性肿瘤发病机制及转化研究教育部重点实验室,北京100142

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2009年第8期666-669,共4页Journal of Environment and Health

摘　　要：目的研究北京市城区居民烟草消费和大气污染对肺癌死亡率的影响,为相关政策制订提供依据。方法收集1982—2005年北京市城区居民肺癌死亡率、居民年人均烟草消费和大气污染资料,进行趋势分析,采用Eviews软件拟合烟草消费和大气污染与肺癌死亡率关系的分布滞后模型,根据模型分析烟草消费和大气污染对肺癌死亡率的影响。结果北京市城区居民肺癌死亡率呈上升趋势,从1982年的19.74/10万上升到2005年的44.73/10万;构建烟草消费和大气污染与肺癌死亡率关系的分布滞后模型,当大气污染选择综合污染指数、NO2和PM10时无统计学意义,仅SO2有统计学意义(P<0.05);构建的模型以肺癌死亡率为因变量,烟草消费和SO2为自变量,调整决定系数R2=0.78时,烟草消费对肺癌死亡率影响的滞后期为8a,SO2对肺癌死亡率影响的滞后期为7a。结论北京市城区肺癌死亡率呈上升趋势,烟草消费和大气污染均对肺癌的死亡率有影响,烟草消费和SO2对肺癌死亡率影响分别有8a和7a的滞后期。Objective To understand the trend of lung cancer mortality of permanent residents in Beijing urban area caused by the influence of per capita tobacco consumption and air pollution. Methods Data of lung cancer mortality, air pollution and tobacco consumption from 1982 to 2005 was collected from published year books and Beijing cancer registration division. Trend analysis was applied to test significance of trend of lung cancer mortality of permanent resident in Beijing urban area. Distributed lag model was applied to determine the influence of per capita tobacco consumption and air pollution on lung cancer mortality by Eviews software package. Results Lung cancer mortality of permanent residents in Beijing urban area elevated from 19.74/100 000 in 1982 to 44.73/100 000 in 2005. In the distributed lag model for lung cancer mortality, with per capita tobacco consumption as independent variable, comprehensive index of air pollution, NO： and PM10 were not statistical significant, while SO2 had statistical significance （P〈0.05）. In the model constructed for lung cancer, mortality of lung cancer was dependent variable, per capita tobacco consumption and SO2 were independent variable, the adjusted determination coefficient （R^2） was 0.78. The effect of tobacco consumption on lung cancer mortality had a lag period of 8 years, and as for SO2, a lag period of 7 years. Conclusion Lung cancer mortality rate of permanent resident in Beijing urban area is increasing. Both tobacco consumption and air pollution are the factors affecting the lung cancer mortality. The tobacco consumption has the lag effect of 8 years, and SO2 concentration has the lag effect of 7 years to the lung cancer mortality in Beijing urban area.

关 键 词：空气污染 肺癌死亡率 烟草消费 分布滞后模型 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]