基于实物期权的科技项目投资评价框架  

Assessment Framework for the Investment in Scientific and Technological Projects Based on Real Options

作　　者：王战果[1] 李岱松[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学计算机与信息工程学院,北京100048 [2]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100022

出　　处：《北京工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2009年第4期65-69,共5页JOURNAL OF BEIJING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY:SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金项目"科技项目的风险管理与企业信任度评价研究"(9082003)

摘　　要：高科技项目与普通项目不同,它的风险比较大,短期收益往往不尽如人意。如果采取传统的评价方法,可能会发现项目是没有投资价值的。但是这类项目一般都包含一种将来继续投资的权力、放弃的权力或者对其他领域能够产生正面的影响。基于实物期权的科技项目投资评价框架,为高科技项目评价提供了一种新思路、一种更为合理的分阶段投资决策方法。这种框架对高科技项目实现了项目立项前的预测、项目进行中的考核对照以及最优投资决策的选取、项目结束后的总体评价和未来潜在价值的评判。利用实物期权方法可以改善投资效率,提高项目管理水平,在减少风险的同时,增加高科技项目的战略价值。Different from general projects, high-tech projects have higher risk and less satisfactory short-term revenues. They may be regarded as no value in investment if evaluated by traditional assessment methods. However, these projects generally contain the right for continuous investment and waiver or they may have positive impact on other domains. Based on real options, the assessment frame- work for the investment in scientific and technological projects renders a new thought and a more reasonable method of investment deci- sion-making by stages for high-tech projects. This kind of framework can realize the prediction before the project is initiated, the assess- ment comparison and the selection of optimal investment decision while the project is being carried on, and the overall assessment and fu- ture potential value judgment after the project is finished. Real option method can improve the investment efficiency, advance the level of project management and increases the strategic value of high-tech projects while it reduces the risks.

关 键 词：科技项目 项目评价 实物期权 现金流量折现 

分 类 号：F713.35[经济管理—产业经济]