基于计算机仿真的火灾时人员安全疏散可靠度分析  

Reliability Analysis of Evacuees′ Evacuation Safety in Fire Based on the Computer Simulation Method

作　　者：马骏驰[1] 李杰[2] 周锡元[3] 

机构地区：[1]住房和城乡建设部稽查办公室,北京100835 [2]同济大学土木工程学院,上海200092 [3]北京工业大学工程抗震与结构诊治北京市重点实验室,北京100022

出　　处：《防灾减灾工程学报》2009年第4期376-381,共6页Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委创新研究群体科学基金项目(50321803)资助

摘　　要：火灾中的人员疏散是个复杂的过程,受到诸多因素的共同影响,传统的人员疏散可靠度分析常常忽略这些因素之间的相互作用。为更准确地计算出火灾中人员疏散的可靠度,本文以某地铁车站为例,借助人员疏散仿真软件buildingEXODUS与火灾模拟程序FDS,分别得到人员所需安全疏散时间(RSET)和可利用安全疏散时间(ASET)。在此基础上,构造人员安全疏散极限状态方程,利用一次二阶矩理论求得安全疏散可靠概率。由于能够较好地反映疏散过程中各影响因素之间的相互作用,因此,采用本文提出的可靠度分析方法能够得到更合理的结果。Occupant evacuation in fire is a complex process, which is affected by many factors. The effects between the factors are always neglected during the traditional analysis of reliable probability of safety evacuation. In order to obtain more accurate results, with the help of buildingEXODUS and FDS, the crowd evacuation aim at a subway station is simulated and analyzed. And the required safety evacuation time （RSET） and available safety evacuation time （ASET） are calculated respectively. Based on the above research, the limit state equation of evacuees＇ safety evacuation is built. After that, the reliable probability of safety evacuation is obtained by first-order second-moment method. Because the effects between each influential parameters of evacuees＇ evacuation are reflected better, the proposed approach is of high accuracy.

关 键 词：人员疏散仿真软件(buildingEXODUS) 火灾模拟程序(FDS) 计算机仿真 疏散 可靠度分析 

分 类 号：X928.7[环境科学与工程—安全科学]