产量研究中翁氏模型和Logistic模型的简易求解  

An Easy Way to Solve the Parameters of Weng Cycle Model and Logistic Model on Studying Oil and Gas Production Rate

作　　者：乐平[1] 陈小凡[1] 崔力公[1] 冯仁鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室(西南石油大学),四川成都610500

出　　处：《石油天然气学报》2009年第4期277-279,共3页Journal of Oil and Gas Technology

摘　　要：翁氏模型和Logistic模型都属于全程预测模型,但在开发初期油气田生产资料缺乏,往往预测准确性差,而到中后期油气田生产数据众多,且上述两种模型非线性程度高,即使通过线性化处理,三参数不同于常规的两参数线性回归,采用试算法或查图版拟合过程复杂,笔者在油气田开发到达中后期出现产量峰值后,利用峰值时间,将模型中的三参数转化为两参数,从而将拟合过程变为简单的二元线性回归。通过实例计算,将两模型分别进行拟合研究后表明,该简易方法求解的模型参数拟合程度理想,在开发的中后期能方便的确定出油气田开发的重要生产指标,具有一定的实用性。Weng Cycle Model and logistic model were the forecasting models of the entire production process.But the forecasting was often poor accuracy at the early stage of oil or gas field development due to the shortage of data at the initial stage.While at the mid-late stage of development,there were massive date of production rate,it was difficult to match the models due to the three-parameter regression being different from the conventional linear regression. The production rate peak time was used to convert the three-parameter model into two parameters and complete the model regression and forecast the simple binary linear regression.The example shows that the new method can solve the model parameter performances well and it is available,simple and convenient for regression and forecast at the mid-late stage of the oil or gas development.

关 键 词：翁氏模型 LOGISTIC模型 参数求解 拟合 预测 

分 类 号：TE319[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]