基于VAR模型的河南省金融发展与经济增长的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis on Relation of Henan Province Financial Development and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model

作　　者：邹康龙[1] 袁静文[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,西安710061

出　　处：《河南科学》2009年第9期1157-1161,共5页Henan Science

摘　　要：运用协整、Granger因果检验和向量自回归模型对河南省1990—2007年金融发展与经济增长关系进行实证分析.研究结果表明,金融相关率指标(FIR)、证券化程度指标(STOC)、保险业发展水平指标(INSURE)及人均经济增长率(RGDP)存在长期均衡关系,其中,STOC与INSURE对RGDP具有正向促进作用,而FIR对RGDP的影响是负向的.具体来说,STOC水平变化的冲击从长期来看对人均GDP增长变化的解释能力较强,并大于FIR与INSURE水平变化的冲击效果.Based on the co-integrate test, Granger causality and the impulse response test, this paper analyze the relationship between the finacial development and economic growth using sample data from 1990 to 2007 in Henan province. The research results shows that there is a stable equilibrium relation between the FIR which represent the financial-related rate, the STOC which represent the extent of seeuritization, the INSURE which represent the level of development of the insurance industry, and the RGDP which represent the level of economic growth. In addition, the STOC and the INSURE have the positive influence to the RGDP, however, the FIR has the negative influence to the RGP. In detail, the contribution of the change of STOC response to the change impact of the level of per capita GDP growth is larger than the change impact of the FIR and the INSURE.

关 键 词：VAR模型 金融发展 经济增长 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学]