全球金融危机下东亚货币金融合作的路径选择  

Path Selection of the Monetary and Financial Cooperation in Eastern Asia under Global Financial Crisis

作　　者：李晓[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2009年第5期3-25,共23页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目"21世纪初期的人民币:区域货币合作背景下的汇率制度改革";人事部留学人员择优项目"东亚货币合作进程中的人民币与日元的合作与协调"

摘　　要：当前的"美元体制"在今后相当长时期内具有可持续性。正是在布雷顿森林体制和"美元体制"下,东亚各经济体的工业化和经济发展取得了巨大成功,成为"美元体制"的主要受益者和支撑者,也自然成为全球金融危机的主要受害者。现阶段的东亚货币金融合作已经取得了一定进展,但东亚各经济体尚不具备推进国际货币体系改革的能力;同时,东亚货币金融合作应改变应对危机的实用主义哲学,以促进区域经济的持续、稳定增长为目标进行更加长远的路径设计,在区域整体层面和局部层面两个层次上加快货币金融合作的深化发展。在此过程中,人民币国际化战略的实施将使中国在区域货币金融合作中占据较为有利的地位,但其能否成功一方面取决于中国经济结构能否进行顺利的调整,使中国成为能够替代美国的区域内最终产品市场的提供者,另一方面也取决于中日两国能否比较顺利地开展汇率政策的协调与合作。东亚地区复杂的历史、文化、政治和社会背景等因素,决定了该地区难以出现"一家独大"式的货币合作模式。因此,中日两国的协调与合作在很大程度上决定着东亚货币金融合作的未来。Based on the analysis of current global financial crisis, this paper points out that the current ＂dollar - dominated system＂ will sustain in recent future. Under the Bretton Woods system and the current ＂dollar -dominated system＂, the industrialization and economic development of East Asian Economies gained great success, and the latter became main beneficiaries and supporters of these systems and also main victims of the global financial crisis. By now, the Eastern Asia regional monetary and financial cooperation has already got some improvements, but the Eastern Asia Economies havent had the abilities to promote the reform of international monetary system. Meanwhile, Eastern Asia Economies should abandon their pragmatism to design the path of cooperation aimed on sustainable and stable growth of the region, and they also should promote the development of monetary and financial cooperation on regional and sub -regional levels. In this process, the implementation of the RMB internationaization strategy could give China a better status in the cooperation, but its success based on two factors： First, whether China can successfully adjust its economic structure and substitute the U. S. as the market provider for the regional production of final goods ; Second, whether China and Japan can coordinate their exchange rate policies. The complicated historical, cultural, political and social factors in Eastern Asia make it difficult to build up a ＂one leader＂ pattern of regional monetary cooperation. It is the cooperation between China and Japan which can decide the future of the regional monetary and financial cooperation.

关 键 词：全球金融危机 东亚货币金融合作 美元体制 国际货币体系改革 人民币区域化 中日合作 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]