制度质量与资本账户开放:基于中国的实证检验  

An Empirical Analysis on the Institution's Quality and the Liberalization of Capital Account in China

作　　者：熊芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2009年第8期8-12,共5页Journal Of Financial Development Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(09CMZ021)的资助

摘　　要：本文运用最小二乘回归方法,对我国1976—2007年间的资本账户开放与制度质量以及金融发展等变量之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果显示,制度质量对资本账户开放的直接影响,以及通过作用于金融发展和金融脆弱性而产生的间接影响在我国是存在的。并且,无论是制度合成指标,还是制度分指标,对资本账户开放的直接效应都为负,间接效应都为正。此外,金融发展与资本账户开放之间显著负相关,表明金融发展水平不足、制度质量不高,是现阶段抑制我国资本账户开放的重要因素。因此,从提高资本账户开放的经济效应的角度,应强调相关制度的重要性。This paper uses the time series data from 1978 to 2007 to analyze the correlation between capital account liberalization, institutional quality and financial development in China by employing the OLS. The results indicate that institutional quality has a direct effect and an indirect via affecting financial development and financial fragility on capital account liberalization. Moreover, whatever it is a synthetic indicator or sub-index of institutional quality, the direct effect is negative and the indirect effect is positive. Additionally, financial development has a significant negative correlation with capital account liberalization. These results reveal that the lower level of financial development and bad institutional quality are important factors to obstacle the capital account liberalization currently. Therefore, to enhance the effects of capital account liberalization, it should be emphasized the importance of related institutions.

关 键 词：资本账户 金融发展 制度质量 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]