基于事故树的调水线路水质污染风险效应  

Impact of Water Pollution Risk in Water Transfer Project Based on Fault Tree Analysis

作　　者：刘建昌[1] 张微[1] 王利民[2] 李黛青[1] 范秀英[1] 邓红兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085 [2]保定市水利水电勘测设计院,保定071000

出　　处：《环境科学》2009年第9期2532-2537,共6页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点科技攻关项目(96-920-17-01-01);亚州开发银行白洋淀流域生态系统综合管理与环境保护项目(GEF-TA4926-PRC)

摘　　要：中尺度水体污染风险评价的方法尚处于探索阶段.以连通保定市王快水库和西大洋水库向白洋淀补水项目为例,提出按事件属性比例确定单事件概率的方法,并使用故障树法分析了总体引水水体污染风险水平.结果表明,沿线污染源对引水水体存在较大风险,现状风险概率为0.373,污染物一旦在项目运行期进入水体可给水体增加约64.53 mg/L的COD、4.57 mg/L的氨氮、0.066 mg/L的挥发酚,增加值较大.按事件属性比例确定基本事件概率,对不确定性水质风险评价具有较强的适用性.The methods to assess water pollution risk for medium water transfer are gradually being explored.The event-nature-proportion method was developed to evaluate the probability of the single event.Fault tree analysis on the basis of calculation on single event was employed to evaluate the extent of whole water pollution risk for the channel water body.The result indicates,that the risk of pollutants from towns and villages along the line of water transfer project to the channel water body is at high level with the probability of 0.373,which will increase pollution to the channel water body at the rate of 64.53mg/L COD,4.57mg/LNH4^＋- and 0.066mg/L volatilization hydroxybenzene,respectively.The measurement of fault probability on the basis of proportion method is proved to be useful in assessing water pollution risk under much uncertainty.

关 键 词：调水工程 水环境污染 风险评价 故障树 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]