汇率制度变迁对金融稳定的影响研究：广东经济金融运行视角  

The Influence of Exchange Rate Regime Transfer on Financial Stability:An Aspect from the Economic and Financial Performance in Guangdong

作　　者：中国人民银行广州分行课题组 穆西安 

出　　处：《南方金融》2009年第8期5-10,共6页South China Finance

基　　金：中国人民银行广州分行2008年度重点课题研究成果

摘　　要：本文理论性地提出了汇率作用于实体经济的传导机制,探讨了汇率变动给地方经济金融运行造成的影响,以及我国汇率制度改革以来尤其是2008年以来广东经济金融运行存在的问题,并通过结构向量自回归模型分析了汇率失调对金融稳定的冲击。本文认为:人民币汇率制度改革有利于优化经济结构、转变增长方式并提高资源配置效率,但由于国内外经济环境日趋复杂,需要稳步推进外汇体制改革,合理把握汇率升值的步伐和节奏,强化经济主体的汇率风险意识,确保经济金融平稳运行。This paper puts forward a theory on the transmission mechanism of exchange rate＇s role on real economy, probes into the influence of the change of exchange rate on local economy and the problem existing in Guangdong＇s economy since the reform of exchange rate regime, and in particular after 2008.It also studies the shock of exchange rate regime transfer on financial stability using VAR model and concludes that RMB exchange rate reform does improve the economic structure, change growth mode and enhance resource allocation efficiency, but due to increasingly complicated economic situation both domestic and abroad, we need to push the foreign exchange rate reform gradually, control the appreciation pace, intensify the awareness of foreign exchange rate risk of the economic entities to safeguard the smooth function of economy and finance.

关 键 词：人民币 汇率 金融稳定 传导机制 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F127F832.7