公共投资对私人投资的挤出挤进效应分析  

Study of Crowding-out and Crowding-in Effect of Public Investment Versus Private Investment

作　　者：汪伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2009年第5期19-24,共6页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

摘　　要：本文运用经济增长理论与新古典分析方法从短期与长期、宏观与微观两个层面分析了公共投资对私人投资替代与互补的影响机制。一方面,公共资本对私人资本具有替代性,增加公共投资会"挤出"等量的私人投资;另一方面,公共资本对私人投资具有正外部性,可提高私人投资的边际产出从而"挤进"私人投资。公共投资对私人投资的影响方向由这两种对立效应的相对强弱决定。实证检验表明,政府公共投资对私人部门投资在挤进的同时又有挤出,最终起主导作用的是挤进效应。政府在公共投资政策的制定和把握上应加强对私人投资的引导和规范,使私人投资者产生正确的理性预期,将项目投向更有效率、更有作用的领域。By using economic growth theory and neoclassical methods,this paper analyzes the mechanism of substitution and compensation of public investment with respect to private investment both from the short run/long run,macroeconomic/microeconomic angle of view.On the one hand,public capital and private capital can substitute each other in the private production function,and increasing public investment can crowd out private investment equally;on the other hand,public capital has positive externality,which can enhance productivity of private production factors,consequently 'crowds in' private investment.Empirically test shows public investment has both crowding-out and crowding-in effects.With respect to private investment,the latter comes to dominate.The government should strengthen guide and regulation for private investment in setting down public investment policies,which lead private investment to form rational expectation and invest in more efficient fields.

关 键 词：公共投资 私人投资 挤出效应 挤进效应 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学]