多普勒雷达资料同化对山东“4·28”飑线过程的数值模拟  

Numerical Simulation of "4.28" Squall Line Process in Shandong Province by Assimilating Doppler Reflectivity Data

作　　者：盛春岩[1,2] 房岩松[3] 黄磊[3] 吕庆利[2] 杨晓霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东省气象科学研究所,山东济南250031 [2]山东省气象台,山东济南250031 [3]山东省气象局大气探测技术保障中心,山东济南250031

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第26期12641-12649,共9页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40705017);山东省自然科学基金(Q2007E03);中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2007M34);山东省气象局重点课题(2006sdqxz08;2009sdqxz01);山东省科技发展计划项目(2009GG10008001)

摘　　要：利用美国俄克拉何马大学风暴分析和预测中心开发的中尺度ARPS模式及其资料分析和同化系统ADAS，将山东省济南齐河、临沂和连云港3部多普勒雷达基数据资料同化进ARPS模式中，对山东“4·28”飑线过程进行了数值对比试验。结果发现，模式采用热启动的方式可以模拟出此次飑线过程，对飑线造成的降水的强度和落区预报也较好。雷达资料同化对飑线地面中尺度系统的模拟有明显的改进作用，尤其是在前2～3h效果非常明显，使模拟的地面雷暴高压和风场更接近实况。使用雷达资料进行同化循环，连续地将多部多普勒雷达资料同化到数值模式中，可以明显改进对飑线系统结构的模拟，较初始时刻同化雷达资料对飑线的模拟效果更好。因此，使用雷达资料进行快速分析和同化进行强对流天气预报是可行的，但模拟的降水偏强，这与雷达资料同化对于大范围暴雨预报的改进作用是不同的。Using Mesoscale ARPS model and its data analysis system ADAS, which were developed at the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, the University of Oklahoma, three Doppler radars cardinal data of Qihe of Jinan, Linyi and Lianyungang were assimilated and com- parative experiments were conducted for the ＂4.28＂ squall line process. The results showed that the hot start can simulate this squall line process reasonably. The rainfall strength and falling area forecast caused by squall line were good. Radar data assimilation had a obviously im- proved effect on the mesoscale system in ground of squall line, especially in the previous 2 -3 hours, which made the ground thunderstorm high pressure of simulation and wind field closer to the observation. Many Doppler radar data used for assimilating cycle can improve the simu- lation of squall line system structure obviously, and had a better effect compared with the data assimilation at the beginning. Therefore, it was feasible to use radar data for rapid analyzing and assimilating, but the simulated rainfall with reflectivity much heavier than the observation, which was different with the improved effect of radar data assimilating to large - scale torrential rainfall prediction.

关 键 词：飑线 雷达资料同化 数值对比试验 

分 类 号：P458.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]