基于瞬时状态概率的保护系统短期可靠性评估  

Short Term Reliability Evaluation for Protection System Based on Instantaneous State Probability

作　　者：李生虎[1] 王京景[1] 刘正楷[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学电气与自动化工程学院,安徽省合肥市230009

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2009年第25期50-55,共6页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50707006);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2004CB217907);安徽省优秀青年科技基金项目(08040106825)~~

摘　　要：电力系统短期可靠性评估中,设备状态概率和不可用率随时间变化较大,采用稳态不可用率抽样随机故障,可能引起较大误差。建立瞬时状态概率的解析算法,提出用评估周期内平均不可用率代替稳态不可用率。将根据历史状态和当前状态得到的平均不可用率概率加权,以反映历史状态转移的影响。建立包括拒动、误动、后备、修复、检修等的继电保护系统状态转移空间,研究了短期不可用率与可靠性参数的关系。结果表明,瞬时状态概率与短期不可用率与其稳态值存在较大差异,从不同初始状态向稳态值振荡或单调收敛。In the short-term reliability evaluation, the steady-state unavailability may yield remarkable error due to the time-dependency of the state probabilities. An analytical solution to the instantaneous state probability was found, and the average unavailability during the evaluation period was derived to replace the steady-state value. The average unavailabilities from the past and current states were weighted to study the influence of previous state transitions. The state space for typical protection systems including failure to operate, maloperation, backup, repair, and inspection was proposed, and the effect of reliability data on the unavailability was investigated. Numerical results show that the instantaneous state probability and the short-term unavailability are quite different from their steady-state values, and may converge in oscillating or monotonic way depending on the initial states.

关 键 词：短期可靠性 瞬时状态概率 平均不可用率 保护 系统 运行风险 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM77[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]