输电线路允许输送容量的混沌预测  

Prediction of Transmission Line Rating Based on Chaotic Time Series Analysis

作　　者：任丽佳[1] 江秀臣[2] 盛戈皞[2] 曾奕[2] 吴小辰[3] 胡玉峰[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海市电力公司市区供电公司,上海市虹口区200080 [2]上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海市闵行区200240 [3]中国南方电网有限责任公司,广东省广州市510000

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2009年第25期86-91,共6页Proceedings of the CSEE

摘　　要：为更准确预测输电线路未来允许的输送容量,提出利用动态提高输电线路输送容量(dynamic line rating,DLR)系统及混沌理论预测线路的输送容量。利用改进的C-C算法可靠性高、计算速度快的特点对容量时间序列进行相空间重构,并证实了线路允许输送容量具有混沌特性,可运用混沌理论预测线路输送的容量。然后采用基于奇异值分解的混沌时间序列Volterra方法对一条安装有DLR系统的110kV线路可输送的容量及线路可能发生的热过载故障进行预测。预测结果显示该方法能够反映容量序列未来变化的趋势及线路发生热过载故障的风险性,提高了预测的精度,是有效、可行的。To predict the transmission line rating in the near future accurately, this paper proposes to use the dynamic line rating （DLR） system which can dynamically increase the transmission line rating, and introduce the chaos theory to predict such rating. This paper reconstructs the phase space for the rating time series by using the advantages of high reliability and fast computation of the improved C-C algorithm, and proves that the short-term transmission line rating has the chaotic characteristics and thus can be predicted with the chaos theory. Subsequently, the singular value decomposition （SVD） Volterra filter is presented to predict the chaotic rating time series and the thermal overload risk of a 110kV line with a DLR system installed. The prediction results show that the proposed method can reflect the varying rule of transmission line rating and the thermal overload risks, and improve the accuracy of rating prediction effectively.

关 键 词：输电线路 动态输送容量 容量预测 热过载风险估计 混沌 VOLTERRA滤波器 

分 类 号：TM72[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]