近37年甘肃省夏季旱涝特征分析  

Study on characteristics of drought-flood in summer in Gansu Province

作　　者：王燕[1,2] 王润元[1,2] 王毅荣[1] 王鹤龄[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]兰州交通大学环境与市政工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2009年第3期214-220,共7页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：科技部科研院所社会公益研究专项(2005DIB3J100)再资助项目;甘肃省自然科学基金(3ZS061-A25-010)

摘　　要：选取甘肃省61个气象站1965-2001年共37 a夏季（6-8月）逐日降水资料,应用正态化Z指数变换,对甘肃省夏季降水进行了旱涝等级划分,并应用EOF、REOF、Maxican hat小波分析等方法对旱涝发生的空间分布和时间演变规律进行了研究。结果表明,就整个夏季而言,干旱出现机率明显高于雨涝;6-7月旱涝机率均等,7-8月较重干旱的出现机率明显高于较重雨涝。甘肃省夏季旱涝主要存在3种变化模态,并可将旱涝分为5个敏感区。甘肃省旱涝从26a以上尺度范围看呈干旱化趋势,旱涝准4a周期在各个年代均比较显著。Based on the daily precipitation data of 61 meteorological stations in Gansu Province during the period of 1965 - 2001, the grades of flood-drought in summer （June-August） were evaluated with Z index, the methods of EOF, REOF and Maxican hat wavelet analysis were used, and the characteristics of the spatial anomaly and temporal evolution rule of summer flood-drought in Gansu Province were analyzed. The results showed as follows： firstly, as a whole system, the probability of occurrence of drought in summer was greater than that of flood; for a single month, the frequency of flood was equal to that of drought in June and July, while the frequency of relative severe drought was higher than that of flood in July and August; secondly, there were three models representing the spatial distribution of flood-drought in Gansu, and the province could be divided into five regions of flood - drought sensitivity; finally, the jumping points of flooddrought varied in different temporal scales, there was a increasingly dry trend in the long period of 26 years and a distinct 4 - year cycle in very 10 - year period.

关 键 词：夏季旱涝 等级评定 空间分布 时间演变 甘肃省 

分 类 号：S422[农业科学—植物保护] S423