气候变暖对上海奉贤地区单季晚稻产量的影响  

Influence of climate warming on single-crop late rice yield in Fengxian District of Shanghai

作　　者：顾品强 金巧玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海市奉贤区气象局,上海201403 [2]上海市奉贤区种子服务中心,上海201400

出　　处：《上海农业学报》2009年第3期115-119,共5页Acta Agriculturae Shanghai

基　　金：上海市气象局2007年科技开发项目(研究型项目yj200705)资助

摘　　要：利用上海市奉贤区1959-2008年气象观测资料和1984-2008年单季晚稻苗情、产量和产量结构资料,分析了气候变暖的基本特征,计算了单季晚稻产量与各气象因子的相关系数,以研究影响水稻产量的主要气象因子。结果显示：单季晚稻产量随着年平均气温的升高而呈明显的上升趋势;日平均气温稳定≥15℃、≥20℃初终期早晚、间隔日数长短及活动积温对产量影响显著,且这些气象因子总体演变趋势使单季晚稻生育可利用的适宜生长期延长,提高了气候资源利用率和水稻单位面积产量。播种育秧期平均气温在21.7～24.3℃产量表现出较好的稳定性,抽穗扬花期最适宜平均气温为25.3℃,籽粒灌浆期平均最高气温与产量呈显著的正相关关系,延迟型低温冷害和阶段性低温冷害对单季晚稻产量或产量性状有重要的影响。Based on the observed meteorological data between 1959 - 2008 and the seedling growth,yields and yield components of single-crop late rice between 1984 - 2008 in Fengxian, the basic characteristics of climate warming and the correlation between the grain yield and the meteorological factors were analyzed to find out the key factors affecting the yield. The results showed that the yield of single-crop late rice increased obviously with the mean annual air temperature rising. Such meteorological factors as the first and last dates of mean daily air temperature≥15℃ or ≥20℃ ,their duration and active accumulated temperature had a significant effect on the yield, and the change trend of these factors prolonged the growth period suitable to single-crop late rice and improved climate resource use efficiency and the yield per unit area. When the mean daily air temperature was 21.7-24.3 ℃ in the period of seeding and growing seedlings, the yield of single-crop late rice was quite stable. In the heading and flowering period the optimal mean air temperature was 25.3 ℃. There was a significant positive correlation between the yield and the mean maximum air temperature at the grain filling stage. Postponed and phased low temperature had an adverse effect on the yield of single-crop late rice.

关 键 词：单季晚稻 产量 气象因子 气候变暖 相关分析 

分 类 号：S511[农业科学—作物学] S162.5