农村大龄未婚男性家庭生命周期研究  

The Family Life Cycle of the Forced Male Bachelors in Rural China

作　　者：姜全保[1] 果臻[2] 李树茁[1] Marcus W.Feldman 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学人口与发展研究所 [2]西安交通大学管理学院 [3]斯坦福大学莫里森人口与资源研究所

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2009年第4期62-70,共9页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(08&ZD048);国家社会科学基金项目(09XSH005)研究成果

摘　　要：文章通过生命表技术和概率理论,测算了大龄未婚男性家庭生命周期各阶段的长度。研究发现大龄未婚男性在60岁时,丧父的累积概率达到0.8,丧母的概率达到0.6;丧父丧母之后大龄未婚男性单独生活16年。不同的年龄参数对测度的各阶段长度有影响。In the paper we first defines forced male bachelor family and divide its life cycle into three stages,and then based on China's 2000 census and by using life table technique and probability theory we study the family life cycles of forced male bachelors. It finds that:Up to 60 years old,the forced male bachelor faces a probability of 0.8 to lose his father,and that of 0.6 to lose his mother. After the death of his parents,a forced male bachelor will live 16 years alone. Those age parameters affect the length of the three family life cycle stages.

关 键 词：大龄未婚男性 家庭生命周期 概率 生命表 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理]