基于RS和GIS的郑州市土地利用动态变化及预测  

Study on the land use dynamic changes and prediction in Zhengzhou based on RS and GIS

作　　者：何瑞珍[1,2] 张敬东 胡艳红[1] 闫东锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学林学园艺学院,河南郑州450002 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)土地复垦与生态重建研究所,北京100083 [3]郑州测绘学校,河南郑州450052

出　　处：《甘肃农业大学学报》2009年第4期126-131,共6页Journal of Gansu Agricultural University

基　　金：河南省科技厅科技攻关项目(991200130)

摘　　要：以郑州市为研究对象,选用1995年、2000年、2007年3期的TM图像,运用RS和GIS技术分析了郑州市1995-2007年间土地利用动态变化的空间过程,并运用马尔柯夫模型对土地利用动态变化及演变趋势进行了预测分析.结果表明:在12 a间,各土地类型的单一土地利用动态度都在增加,综合土地利用动态度也呈上升趋势.预测结果表明,2007年以后的14 a内(2007-2021年)研究区内耕地将进一步减少,但减少的幅度将逐渐减小;林地总面积也将减少,但草地的面积将变化不大;城镇用地将进一步继续增加,但增加的速度将放缓;水域面积将继续减少.Based on TM images in 1995,2000 and 2007, using RS and GIS methods, the land use dynamic changes from 1995 to 2007 in Zhengzhou have been analyzed in this paper. The Markov process has been applied to analyze and predict the variation tendency of land use. The results showed that in the past 12 years, the single land use dynamic indexes of each land type increased and the comprehensive land use dynamic indexes also presented a rising trend. Markov prediction revealed in 14 years from 2007 the farmland would decrease, but the range would diminish. The forestland would also decrease, but the grassland would change less. The residential land would increase, but the change rate would become slow. The water land would decrease.

关 键 词：土地利用 转移矩阵 动态变化 马尔柯夫模型 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]