基于灰色理论的基岩裂缝开度尖点突变模型  

Research on Cusp Catastrophe Model of Crack in Bedrock Based on Grey Theory

作　　者：刘健[1] 程森 

机构地区：[1]山东大学土建与水利学院,济南250061 [2]山东省海河流域水利管理局,济南250100

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报》2009年第17期106-109,共4页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2009CB724607);国家科技支撑计划(2006BAJ05A12);国家自然科学基金(50779032)

摘　　要：基岩裂缝产生和发展的原因复杂,在分析过程中很难找到合适的相关变量因子,难以用常规的回归分析方法建立预测模型。将基岩裂缝开度的实测资料看作一个时间序列,利用灰色系统理论建立其GM(1,1)预测模型,根据突变理论可以较好地预测控制变量作用下的系统状态是否连续、稳定的特点,利用尖点突变模型对其变化情况进行分析。通过工程实例证明该方法具有较好的效果。It is needed to analyse growth of cracks in the bedrock to monitor safety of rock slope and dam system. Because of the complexity of formation and growth of cracks in the bedrock, it is difficult to find suitable influence factors to establish forecasting model by regression analysis method. In this paper, time series is founded by observation data, then GM（1,1 ） forecasting model is established based on grey system theory. Based on advantage of catastrophe theory which can determine the stability of system by analysing condition of control fators, growth of cracks in the bedrock is analyzed by cusp catastrophe model. The effectiveness of this method is proved by engineering examples.

关 键 词：基岩 裂缝 灰色理论 尖点突变模型 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]