我国喜马拉雅地区适应气候变化能力建设的需求调查与分析  

Building up the Capacity of Adapting to the Climate Change in the Himalayas of China:Demand Investigation and Analysis

作　　者：杨建平[1] 谭春萍[1] 刘俊峰[1] 韩春坛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所生态水文与流域科学实验室、冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2009年第3期510-517,共8页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2007CB411507);冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室基金项目(SKLCS-ZZ-2008-04)资助

摘　　要：喜马拉雅地区是全球潜在关键区,过去几十年的气候变化已导致该地区冰川消融,与冰川有关的灾害风险与日俱增,随着气候的持续变暖,冰川消融将对该地区水资源供给产生负面影响.基于社会调查和实地考察,分析了我国喜马拉雅山地区冰川消融对灾害的可能影响,对水电发展的现实和潜在影响,并详细分析了气候变化对农业、牧业和林业的影响.根据调查问卷,分析了当地在适应冰川消融方面的迫切需求,社会经济不同部门适应气候变化的需求.以位于珠峰北坡朋曲河流域的定日县为典型区,探讨了在该县增强适应气候变化能力建设问题.当地应首先加强气候防护基础设施建设,以应对目前强降水增加引发的山洪、冰川加速消融导致的冰川洪水和泥石流危害、气候暖干化导致的农牧业干旱;开展以水能为主,多能互补,能源多样化建设,既可加快当地社会经济发展,又可促进当地居民适应气候变化能力的提高;吸引本地人才回流,加强各级岗位人才培训,提高管理水平和技术水平;大力开展科普宣传,提高农牧民对气候变化及其影响的了解和认识,增强其防御和应对能力.The Himalayas is potentially the most critical region in the world where glaciers are retreating, hazard risk related to glaciers is increasing due to climate change, and retreating glaciers will negatively affect the water supply in the next few decades. It is an urgent want to scientifically and effectively reply the climate change, to develop the adapting capacity, to upgrade the management levels of government departments at all levels in the side of adapting to the climate change, and to strengthen local peopless consciousnesses. Based on social survey and on-the-spot investigation, in this paper, the possible impacts of glacier retreating on hazard, practical and potential effects on water and electricity industry are analyzed, as well as the impacts of climate change on agriculture, stockhreed- ing and forest in the Himalayas of China. According to questionnaire, the demands of adapting glacier retreating and adapting climate change for different social and economic sectors are analyzed in this text too. Tingri County, located in the northern slopes of the Mt. Qomolangma in the central Himalayas, is selected as a representative area to discuss how to build up the capacity of adaptation of climate change. Houses, farmlands, rangelands and roads are local＇s means of production and living. It is supposed that the local governments should firstly boost infrastructure construction against climate hazards, including infrastructures for preventing or controlling flood and drought. Energy construction can quicken local socio-economie development and facilitate an increase of adaptation capacity. Thus, it is very urgent for locals and governments. Various types of professional and technical talents are necessary for adapting climate change. Based on practical conditions, the Tingri County should absorb local talents to return, intensify personnel training at all levels, and heighten management and technique levels. Governmental propaganda and guidance are energetically developed, in order to lead farmer and herde

关 键 词：喜马拉雅山地区 适应气候变化 能力建设 需求调查 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P343.6