基于地质灾害易发程度分区的滑坡预报模型  

The Research of Landslide Forecast Model Based on the Subarea of Easily to Produce Geological Disaster

作　　者：周国兵 马力[2] 韩余 

机构地区：[1]重庆市气象台,重庆401147 [2]重庆市气象局,重庆401147

出　　处：《山地学报》2009年第4期466-470,共5页Mountain Research

基　　金：中国气象局多轨道业务建设项目"西南地区滑坡和泥石流灾害气象监测预警业务服务系统"(2007)~~

摘　　要：利用1980～2006年重庆市山体滑坡个例,根据重庆市国土资源局对重庆市地质灾害易发程度等级区划对滑坡个例进行了分类统计。结果表明,降水对不同滑坡危险等级区域的影响是不同的,越容易产生滑坡的区域其前期降水对其的潜在影响越大。根据前期不同量级降水诱发的滑坡发生概率,拟合出了不同地质易发分区的前期降水对滑坡的贡献率指数方程和山体滑坡有效降水量方程,在此基础上建立起了重庆市不同地质灾害易发程度灾害区内山体滑坡预报指标模型,为开展重庆市精细化山体滑坡气象条件等级预报打下良好的基础。We collected all the cases of landslide in Chongqing during 1980 to 2006 and counted them based on the subarea of easily to produce geological disaster with Chongqing municipal bureau of land resources. The result indi- cated that, the precipitation in the different landslide dangerous rank region influence was different, easier to have landslide region its preliminary precipitation to be bigger to its latent influence. According to the earlier period dif- ferent magnitude precipitation to induce landslide, fitted the contributory ratio exponential equation of preliminary precipitation to the landslider and the effective precipitation equation of mountain landslide in the different subarea of easily to produce geological disaster. The mountain landslide forecast target model was established on the two e- quations, for developed the Chongqing fine refinement landslide meteorological condition rank forecast to build the good foundation.

关 键 词：滑坡预报模型 地质灾害 易发程度分区 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]