基于生态足迹的城市可持续性评价——以济宁市为例  

Assessment of Urban Sustainability Based on Ecological Footprint——A Case Study in Jining City

作　　者：袁涛[1,2] 韩宝平[1,3] 许爱芹[4] 宋亚洲[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,江苏徐州221008 [2]江苏省资源环境信息工程重点实验室,江苏徐州221008 [3]徐州师范大学,江苏徐州221116 [4]徐州医学院公共卫生系,江苏徐州221000

出　　处：《生态经济（学术版）》2009年第1期15-18,共4页Ecological Economy

基　　金：教育部博士点基金项目(20030290010)

摘　　要：本研究在生态足迹理论模型的基础上,以济宁市统计年鉴数据为依据,对济宁市1996～2005年的生态足迹进行了分析和评价。结果表明,济宁市人均生态足迹需求日趋增大,生态承载力逐步减小,到2005年人均生态赤字已达4.757hm2,反映出济宁市对生物生产性土地面积的需求远远大于区域内生态环境的承载能力,处于不可持续的发展状态。此外,利用灰色预测模型对济宁市2006～2010年人均生态足迹与生态承载力进行了预测,预测结果表明,2010年人均生态赤字将达到8.8852hm2。最后,针对以上情况,提出了相应对策。Based on the model of ecological footprint, the ecological footprints of Jining were analyzed and evaluated according to the data of the statistical yearbook. The results show that the ecological deficit per capita is arriving at 4. 757 hm^2 in 2005 as the ecological footprint increased and the ecological carrying capacity decreased. The high ecological deficit shows that the human load had already gone beyond the regional bio-capacity. The city is in an un-sustainable status completely. Moreover, predictions of that from 2006 to 2010 were performed with the Gray Model method which implies that the ecological deficit of Jining will reach 8. 885 2 hm^2 per capita in 2010. Finally, some countermeasures are put forward.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态赤字 GDP 灰色模型 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]