社会保障支出对个人储蓄的影响研究  

The Research of the Impact of Social Security Expenditure on Household Savings

作　　者：许小君[1] 郑军[2] 

机构地区：[1]绵阳师范学院商学院,四川绵阳621000 [2]西南财经大学工商管理学院,成都610074

出　　处：《生态经济（学术版）》2009年第2期31-33,50,共4页Ecological Economy

基　　金：2006年度国家自然科学基金一般规划项目"养老保险基金的治理与风险控制的制度分析"(G030604);四川省教育厅资助科研项目"完善四川省城乡社会保障制度建设研究"(07SB076);四川省教育厅人文社会科学重点研究基地绵阳师范学院民间文化研究中心项目"四川省农村家庭养老文化研究"(MJ07-15)

摘　　要：本文以1980～2006年的年度数据为样本,利用协整分析和误差修正模型分析我国社会保障支出和居民储蓄之间的关系。理论分析和经验检验结果表明,我国社会保障支出和居民储蓄之间存在着正相关的关系。这有两个原因:首先,在现阶段,社会保障支出的"挤入效应"大于"挤出效应";其次,现阶段的基金制比以前的现收现付制导致更高的社会储蓄。This paper based on the data from 1981 to 2007 released by China statistical bureau, analyzed the dynamic equilibrium relationship between social security expenditure and household savings by using co - integration analysis. The testing indicates that there is positive correlation between social security expenditure and household savings in China. There are two causes. The first reason is that the extrusion effect of the social security expenditure is more than the pressing of it. The second reason is that the fund system can result in the more household savings than pay- as- you- go system.

关 键 词：社会保障支出 资产替代效应 退休效应 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学] F832.22