基于系统动力学的青海省可持续发展评价  

Research on the Sustainable Development in Qinghai Province based on System Dynamics

作　　者：李杰兰[1] 陈兴鹏[1,2] 王雨[1] 张子龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州730000 [2]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《资源科学》2009年第9期1624-1631,共8页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"1980s以来汉藏回民族地区人地关系演变过程的时空比较研究-以甘肃定西;甘南;临夏为例"项目(编号:40871061)

摘　　要：本文立足于生态经济理论,利用系统动力学模型方法和柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,构建青海省"资源-环境-经济系统"结构模型,表明经济增长、资源枯竭和环境影响之间的反馈关系。包括8个子系统:生产子系统,人口子系统,人力资本子系统,人造资本子系统,不可更新资源子系统,可更新自然资源子系统,技术子系统,环境污染子系统。采用系统动力学专用模拟分析软件VENSIM PLE5.4模拟青海省"资源-环境-经济系统"可能的运行情景,对青海省"资源-环境-经济系统"运行规律进行探索,旨在揭示青海省不同发展模式下的环境响应,为青海省的可持续发展决策提供参考,也为环境友好型社会建设提供理论依据。结果表明:青海省经济发展对自然资源的依赖性强,可持续发展难以实现;技术对经济增长的贡献十分突出,对自然资源表现出弱可替代性;青海省应当转变经济发展模式,发展循环经济;国家投资是青海省环境友好型建设的重要保障。关键词:生态经济;系统动力学;资源-环境-经济系统;In this paper, a simulation model is constructed to illustrate the feedback relations between economic growth, resource depletion and environmental impact based on system dynamics （SD）, ecological economics and Cobb-Douglas production function. It also reflects the feedback relations between production and factors of production, limited availability of natural resources, and the limits on the consumption scale of those resources. The core modeling in this paper is Cobb-Douglas production function. Manufactured capital, renewable natural capital, nonrenewable natural capital, and human capital are the production factors in Cobb-Douglas production function. Technology used in the production sets the overall level of efficiency in production. Eight sub-systems together determine possible scenarios of the Resources-Environmental-Economic System by interacting with and feeding back to each other. There are six variables in Cobb-Douglas production function corresponding to the six sub-system...更多s respectively. They are production, technology, human capital, manufactured capital, renewable natural resource input and un-renewable natural resource input. In addition to the six sub-systems, there are two other sub-systems in parallel, which are population and environment. By adjusting parameters within the model and changing the specification of some variables, the isolated effect of resource depletion, technological development, or other factors on per-capita production scale can be revealed. The results of the modeling can offer some constructional advices for the sustainable development in Qinghai Province. The objective is to illustrate an ecological-economic system at a high level of aggregation, and to illustrate different aspects of the competing economy and an world view of ecological-economy, including the concepts on a sustainable scale. Formulation experiments indicate the importance of technology in the economic growth, as well as the sensitivity of output to industrial specialization. Formulation expe

关 键 词：生态经济 系统动力学 资源-环境-经济系统 青海省 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]