基于最小二乘法的高压直流输电系统可靠性灵敏度分析  

Sensitivity Analysis of HVDC Transmission System Reliability Using the Least Square Method

作　　者：黎小林 曹侃[2] 谢开贵[2] 王立斌[2] 黄莹 许树楷 

机构地区：[1]南方电网技术研究中心,广东省广州市510623 [2]重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆市400030

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2009年第18期12-16,共5页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAA02A21);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50777067);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-05-0762);重庆市自然科学基金资助项目(CSTS2008BC7031)~~

摘　　要：对高压直流(HVDC)输电系统进行可靠性灵敏度分析可以辨识系统的薄弱环节,对改善系统可靠性具有重要意义。文中提出一种分析HVDC输电系统可靠性灵敏度的方法:用最小二乘法拟合HVDC输电系统可靠性指标随元件可靠性参数变化的曲线,并根据拟合曲线即可得到元件对系统可靠性的灵敏度。当HVDC元件的可靠性参数发生变化后,为了快速估算出该参数对应的灵敏度,提出灵敏度曲线的概念,并推导了其解析表达式。对一单12脉接线HVDC输电系统进行灵敏度分析,证实了该方法的可行性和有效性。Weak parts of a HVDC transmission system can be recognized using sensitivity analysis, which has been an important technique for system reliability assessment and enhancement. A new sensitivity analysis method for HVDC system is proposed in this paper. The least square method is used to model the relationship of HVDC reliability indices varying with the reliability parameters of components. It can be used to obtain the sensitivity formula of system reliability indices with respect to parameters of system components. The concept of sensitivity curve and its analytical expression are also proposed. Based on the sensitivity curve, sensitivity indices can be estimated rapidly when the reliability parameters of components are changed. A single 12-pulse HVDC transmission system is used to illustrate the proposed method. Case studies indicate that the method is feasible and effective.

关 键 词：高压直流输电系统 可靠性 最小二乘法 灵敏度分析 

分 类 号：TM721.1[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM732