国内彩票购买者的有限理性行为研究  

A Study on the Bounded Rationality of Lottery Buyers in China

作　　者：曾忠禄[1] 翟群[1] 游旭群[2] 

机构地区：[1]澳门理工学院 [2]陕西师范大学心理学院,西安710062

出　　处：《心理科学》2009年第5期1248-1251,共4页Journal of Psychological Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(项目批准号:06JAXLX009);澳门理工学院基金课题"中国澳门及内地居民博彩行为的社会心理效应与机制研究"

摘　　要：人们购买彩票主要有两种动机,一是为了消遣娱乐,一是为了赢钱。消遣娱乐的动机比较容易解释,因为人有追求刺激和变化的需要,但赢钱的动机则难以解释,因为购买彩票的返奖率只有50%,通过购买彩票赚钱总体而言是不现实的。行为经济学的有限理性理论有助于这方面的解释。本研究通过对广州1101名彩票购买者的问卷调查,验证了有限理性理论对以赢钱为动机的博彩行为的解释效力,具体表现在如下五个方面:错误地认为看起来更带随机性的号码具有更高的中奖概率;错误地认为,通过自己有技巧性选择号码可以影响博彩结果;对中大奖的概率及其含义缺乏客观地认识;错误地解释"差一点点中大奖"的经历。People buy lottery tickets out of two motivations, for entertainment and for winning money. The entertainment motivation is comparatively easy to explain： people have needs for stimulation and varieties, but the winning motivation is difficult to explain because in lottery games only about 50 % of the money will be returned in the form of prizes. The theory of ＂bounded rationality＂ in behavioral economics is helpful for the explanation： people buy lottery tickets for winning money because their rationality is bounded; therefore, their buying behavior is not very rational. Their bounded rationality found expression in the following： they erroneouly believe that random lottery numbers have greater winning probabality, that by skilfuly selecting their own lottery numbers they can influence the results of the play; they do not have an objective understanding of the probabilities and the implication of the play; they spend too much time and energy in studying the ＂rules＂ of the winning numbers; and they mistakenly explain their ＂near winning＂ experiences, etc.

关 键 词：彩票 赌博 动机 有限理性 

分 类 号：F832.48[经济管理—金融学]