城市水价预测模型研究与GMM参数校验  

Water Pricing Forecast Model and Generalized Method of Moments Estimation

作　　者：李翠梅[1,2] 刘遂庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学环境科学与工程学院,上海200092 [2]苏州科技学院环境科学与工程学院,苏州215011

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第9期1212-1216,共5页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(50409016);国家"863"高技术研究发展计划资助项目(2004AA649410);江苏省环境科学与工程重点实验室开放课题资助项目(Zd081204)

摘　　要：主要介绍城市水价预测边际成本方法数学模型及其广义二阶矩(GMM)估计的研究.将水价模型分割为可变成本函数与固定成本函数两部分,为了减小预测误差对每部分函数参数进行了GMM估计与校验.从水的供应与需求两个方面对水价数学模型进行了详细描述,并以我国某地区实际数据为样本对水价预测模型与GMM估计进行了应用;在水价预测模型中还以城市给水管网长度为规模参数,模拟了边际成本定价及其社会剩余变化对管网规模效应的影响.揭示了水价边际价格与边际成本之间的差异,以及城市给水管网规模效应范围及其与水价之间的敏感程度,表明了城市水价预测最优定价的特点.The study aims to evaluate the pricing of water utilities by generalized method of moments （GMM） estimation. An econometric model is elaborated in terms of both water supply and demand and applied to study utilities located east in China. Based on the GMM estimated technology and demand parameters, marginal-cost pricing and social surplus variations are simulated. The estimated parameters are derived and estimates of returns to scale and elasticities of water demand are discussed. The current pricing of water utilities is analyzed by comparing marginal costs and marginal prices. These estimates are then used to simulate first-best optimal pricing by solving a supply-demand system in prices and quantifies. It shows that the optimal pricing scheme is characterized first by higher marginal prices and second by a lower fixed charge.

关 键 词：城市水价 边际成本 广义二阶矩 模拟 预测 

分 类 号：TU993.1[建筑科学—市政工程]