多哈回合农业谈判2008年“12月草案”对中国影响的评估  

Assessment on the Effects of December (2008) Draft of Doha Round Agricultural Negotiation on China

作　　者：吴朝阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学国际经贸学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《当代财经》2009年第9期93-98,共6页Contemporary Finance and Economics

摘　　要：多哈回合农业谈判主席克劳福德.法尔科内2008年12月发布的模式草案("12月草案")代表了各主要利益方的最新立场。相比"哈宾森方案"、"7月方案"及"雄心方案"而言,在"12月草案"中,中国农产品关税的削减幅度最高,农产品贸易平衡的改善程度最小,总体福利和消费者剩余损失最少,生产者剩余增加也最少,但政府收益减少幅度较大;相比"12月草案(不考虑敏感产品)"而言,"12月草案"对我国生产者、政府收益和总体福利更为有利;中国劳动密集型农产品、加工农产品和具有地域特色的水果在"12月草案"中受益明显,稻米、小麦、精糖由于被列为敏感产品收益也较明显,而其他热带水果、香蕉、大麦、高粱、温带油籽、植物油、活动物、橡胶和初糖等受冲击较大。In December 2008, Crawford Falconer, chairperson of the agricultural negotiation of Doha Round, circulated his latest draft modalities （December draft） , which includes the latest standpoints of the main participants. Compared with the Harbinson Draft, July （2004） Package and the ambitious approach, the December draft will bring China largest agricultural tariff cut, smallest agricultural trade balance improvement, least total welfare and consumer surplus loss, slightest producer surplus increment, and relatively more government revenue loss. It is also found that the December draft （without consideration of sensitive goods） will be more favorable to China＇s agricultural producers, government revenue and the total welfare. China＇s labor intensive agricultural products, the processed agricultural products and fruits with the regional characteristics will benefit obviously from the December draft; those products which has been listed as sensitive products will benefit as well, such as rice, wheat and refined sugar; but other products, such as tropical fruits, banana, barley, broomcorn, oilseeds of temperate zone, vegetable oil, livestock, rubber, raw sugar and so on will be affected by the strong impact.

关 键 词：“12月草案” ATPSM 国内支持 市场准入 出口补贴 

分 类 号：F740.41[经济管理—国际贸易]