人民币汇率变动对我国加工贸易进口影响的实证研究:1995-2008  

An Empirical Study of the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Variation on China’s Processing Trade Imports: 1995-2008

作　　者：杨碧云[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《当代财经》2009年第9期99-104,共6页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：2009年度国家社会科学基金一般项目(09BJY080);广东省普通高校人文社会科学研究重点研究基地重点项目(07JDTDXM79004);广东省2008年自然科学基金项目(8151042001000012)

摘　　要：由于加工贸易"两头在外"的特征,人民币汇率变动对加工贸易进口的影响有其特殊机制。研究表明:加工贸易进口与汇率之间长期内存在均衡关系,人民币升值对加工贸易进口的短期动态影响也很显著。短期内,汇率升值导致加工贸易进口增加,而长期内升值导致加工贸易进口减少,且人民币汇率波动对加工贸易进口波动的影响弹性在长期和短期内都大于1。整体来看,要加速我国加工贸易的转型,需要慎行人民币升值,保持人民币汇率稳定。As the processing trade has the feature of ＂both ends （raw material and finished product） are outside＂ , the impact of the changing of RMB exchange rate on the processing trade imports has its special mechanism. Studies show that there exists a long-time proportionate relationship between the processing trade imports and the exchange rate; the short-term dynamic effects of the appreciation of RMB on the processing trade imports are also significant. In a short term, the exchange-rate appreciation will lead to increased processing trade imports, while in a long term, the appreciation will lead to reduced processing trade imports, and the effect elasticity of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the fluctuations of processing trade imports in both long-term and short-term is bigger than 1. On the whole, in order to speed up the transformation of China＇s processing trade, it is necessary to be very cautious in RMB appreciation and try to keep the RMB exchange rate stable.

关 键 词：加工贸易进口 实际有效汇率 人民币升值 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]