济源市夏季高温日数的气候特征及预测模型  

Climate Characteristics of High Temperature Days in Summer in Jiyuan and Prediction Model

作　　者：张艳玲[1] 沈瑾[2] 胡玉梅[1] 张静[3] 张姣姣[1] 王双霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]济源市气象局,河南济源454650 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000 [3]河南省气象培训中心,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2009年第B09期27-30,共4页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

摘　　要：统计分析了济源1971-2007年夏季的年、月、旬气温资料,发现高温日数多发生在6-7月份,年高温日数多为14-20天,且具有逐渐增多的趋势。利用小波方法分析济源高温日数发现,1971-1990年高温日数存在8 a左右的周期震荡,1990-2007年震荡周期有减小趋势,约为6 a左右。应用模糊马尔科夫模型对济源市高温日数进行预测,预测结果与实况吻合。Based on the annual, monthly, 10 days temperature data in summer from 1971 to 2007 in Jiyuan, the results show that high temperature days always occur in June and July, the annual high temperature days are about 14-20 d, and with an increasing trend. Using wavelet method, it is found that the number of high temperature days has an 8 a oscillation cycle in 1971--1990, and has approximately 6 a cycle in 1990 2007. The number of high temperature days in the future forecast has coincided with the actual result using the fuzz Markov chain mode.

关 键 词：高温日数 年际变化 小波分析 模糊马尔科夫链模型 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]