近50年中国极端降水事件的观测研究  

Observation Study on the Extreme Precipitation Events in China during Recent 50 Years

作　　者：崔方[1] 郭品文[1] 吴建秋[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第27期13170-13172,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：利用全国631（743）站1951～2004年逐日降水资料，由百分比阈值法定义出极端降水指数，并在极端降水年指数的基础上对我国极端降水事件频次的季节分布特征及极端降水雨量的年内分布趋势进行了探讨。结果显示：近50年我国强降水年指数总体呈上升趋势；1951—1971年和1972—2004年2个子时段间强降水年指数在新疆西部、东北北部、青藏高原东南侧、长江中下游地区以及华南大部呈显著增加；综合强降水年指数分布、强降水比率以及强降水季指数分布特征分析得出若干极端降水事件显著影响的区域。Using daily precipitation data from 631 （743） station for the period 1951 - 2004 of China, defined indices of extreme precipitation events （EPE） by percentile threshold method. Base on the annual （EPE） indices , the character of seasonal indices disturbing were studied. The results showed that the mean linear trends of indices of precipitation extremes were increasing in the past 50 years in China. The linear trends of indices of precipitation extremes for the period between 1951 - 1971 and 1972 -2004 were compared. The very wet days were increasing obviously in northwest Xinjiang, northern Northeast China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, southeastern part of Tibetan Plateau. The characters of distributing of annual EPE indices, seasonal EPE indices and the ratio of heavy precipitation to very wet days were comprehensively analyzed. The most influenced areas by EPE were studied.

关 键 词：极端降水事件 变暖 非均匀性 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]