我国居民通货膨胀预期的性质及对通货膨胀的影响  

On the Inflation Expectations in China

作　　者：张蓓[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行总行,北京100800

出　　处：《金融研究》2009年第9期40-54,共15页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：预期在推动通货膨胀中具有重要作用,有效的货币政策必须将立足点移到"事前",重视对公众通货膨胀预期的控制。本文通过改进Carlson-Parkin概率法完成了通货膨胀预期定性调查数据的定量化工作,计算出我国的预期通货膨胀率。在此基础上,研究我国城镇居民通货膨胀预期的性质以及其对通货膨胀的影响,结果表明,我国消费者通货膨胀预期对实际通货膨胀有影响,消费者考虑通货膨胀的历史情况及自己过去的预期偏差来形成未来的通货膨胀预期,且预期具有自我实现的特征。因此,通货膨胀预期管理应纳入中央银行的战略之中,稳定预期的最好方法就是一直保持较低且稳定的通货膨胀。Inflation expectations play an important role in inflation dynamics. An effective monetary policy should be forward-looking, and attach importance to the anchoring of inflation expectations. The paper improves the Carlson-Parkin method to quantify the survey data of inflation expectations. The nature of urban consumer inflation expectations in China and the effects of the expectations on actual inflation are also analyzed. The evience shows that there is a stable relation between expectations and actual inflation. Consumers will take the historical inflation and past expectation error into account when forming their own inflation expectations which are self-fulfilling. The policy implication is that the best way for central banks to anchor inflation expectations is to keep low and stable inflation and should interrupt the inflation- spiral in the early stage to avoid high inflation.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 通货膨胀预期 理性预期 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学] F224