城市电力需求灰色预测模型研究  

A Study on the Electric Power Demand Forecasting Model of City Based on Grey System Theory

作　　者：张兵[1] 黄文生[1] 周瑛[1] 袁威[1] 

机构地区：[1]常州工学院电子信息与电气工程学院,江苏常州213002

出　　处：《常州工学院学报》2009年第4期26-29,42,共5页Journal of Changzhou Institute of Technology

基　　金：2006江苏省高校成果产业推进工程指导性计划项目(JHZD06-42);2008常州市青年科技人才培养计划项目(CQ2008009);2008年度江苏省高校"青蓝工程"培养对象资助项目(YW0911);2009江苏省高等学校大学生实践创新训练计划项目

摘　　要：采用灰色系统理论预测城市用电量，通过1999～2006年的数据来对模型进行验证，结果表明，模型的检验值P〉0．95、C〈0．35，这说明模型的预测精度为“优”。同时，对南京市2009—2015年全社会用电量进行预测，结果表明，今后几年南京市的用电量增加很快，这就要求加快电力建设，来满足今后几年经济发展对电力的需求。The electricity demand forecasting model city is established based on grey system theory in this article, then the data from 1999 to 2006 is applied to verify it, which shows model testing ralues are P 〉 0.95, C 〈 0.35, which indicates the forecast accuracy of the model reaches＂ excellent＂, and the electricity demand of Nanjing from 2009 to 2015 is forecasted through this model,showing that in the next few years,the electricity consumption in Nanjing will increase rapidly, which requests speeding up construction of power to meet the economic development of Jiangsu province in the next few years.

关 键 词：电力需求 灰色系统 模型 预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]