距平模式月际旱涝异常的诊断及预测试验  

DIAGNOSTIC AND PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS IN SUMMER BY USING A NONSTEADY ATMOSPHERE AND EARTH SURFACE COUPLED ANOMALY MODEL

作　　者：罗勇[1] 林本达[2] 王绍武[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心 [2]北京大学地球物理系

出　　处：《气象学报》1998年第5期540-550,共11页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金："长江黄河流域旱涝规律成因与预测"课题

摘　　要：用地气耦合非定常距平模式对２４个夏季旱涝月个例进行了诊断和预测试验。结果表明，用这种动力与统计外部结合的ＭＯＳ方法进行旱涝预测比较简易可行，并且达到一定的准确率，便于在短期气候预报的业务中推广应用。In this paper, a nonsteady atmosphere earth surface coupled anomaly model is used to carry out diagnostic and prediction experiments of droughts and floods in summer for 24 monthly cases. The results show that this dynamic and statistical externally combined MOS method is convenient and easy to use for the prediction of droughts and floods and is of certain forecasting accuracy and hence is easily applicable for operational short range climate forecasting. This method is of the potentiality for further developing and improving.

关 键 词：距平模式 旱涝预测 模式输出统计 旱灾 涝灾 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S423[农业科学—植物保护]