外汇储备增长影响因素的比较分析  

The Comparative Analysis of Influential Factors of Foreign Exchange Reserves Increase

作　　者：黄寿峰[1] 陈浪南[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,广东中山510275

出　　处：《上海金融》2009年第9期69-73,共5页Shanghai Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70473106;70673116);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(05JJD790075);国家社科基(07BJY167);上海立信会计学院中国立信风险管理研究院课题;中山大学"985工程"产业与区域发展研究创新基地;广东省普通高校人文社会科学重点研究基地经费资助成果之一

摘　　要：对于外汇储备增长的影响因素,不同的视角出发可以得出不同的答案。本文选取亚洲三个储备大国中国、日本和印度作为研究对象,分别使用LLC和IPS方法对三国的面板数据进行了平稳性检验,而后的同质面板Kao检验和异质面板Pedroni检验表明,经常项目、平均进口倾向、汇率及外商直接投资与外汇储备之间存在协整关系。在此基础上,本文构建了似不相关回归SUR模型实证分析了这些因素对外汇储备的影响。结果表明,经常项目、平均进口倾向、外商直接投资与外汇储备呈正相关关系,而汇率与外汇储备负相关。本文还针对目前我国外汇储备增长影响因素的实际情况,提出了相关的政策建议。When it comes to the issue that which factor can affect the increase of foreign exchange reserve, different perspectives leads to different answers. In this paper, we select China, Japan and India that have substantial reserves in Asia as the study object. We use LLC method and IPS method to test the stability of the panel data respectively. And the homogeneous panel co-integration Kao test and the heterogeneous panel co-integration Pedroni test both show that there is a co-integration relationship between current accounts, average inclination of imports, exchange rate, foreign direct investment and foreign exchange reserve. On this basis, this article constructs a SUR model to empirically analyze how these factors influence the foreign exchange reserves increase. The results show that current account, average inclination of imports and foreign direct investment are all positively correlated with foreign exchange reserves, while there is negative correlation between exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves. Considering the actual state of the factors that influence China＇s foreign exchange reserves increase, we put forward the interrelated policy proposals.

关 键 词：外汇储备 影响因素 似不相关回归 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]