中国电力产业链周期性波动实证研究  

Research on recurrent fluctuations of China electricity industry chains

作　　者：韩金山[1] 谭忠富[1] 赵耳岽[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电力经济研究所,北京102206

出　　处：《中国电力》2009年第9期1-7,共7页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70671042);北京哲学社会科学规划重点资助项目(07AfJG170)

摘　　要：电力产业链是以煤炭工业为起点,电力工业为纽带,向钢铁、电解铝、电石等下游工业辐射而形成的相对独立的产业链群系统。对产业链主要产品增长率序列进行因子分析、变量聚类分析和动态分析。结果表明:产业链波动存在很强的关联性,其主要因素以电力为核心,主要覆盖煤炭、钢铁、电石、铁合金等基础工业,它们的动态特征是关联性越来越紧密,长期波动起伏趋势一致,风险积累越来越严重。关联度最高的钢铁等4个下游产业以2倍宏观经济的增速持续增长了7a以上,面临比较大的调整压力。在这样的条件下,在制定行业发展战略和推进体制改革中,电力产业应居于产业链发展的主导地位,注意防范相关产业的风险"外溢",努力理顺与上下游产业的经济关系。The industry chain of electricity （ICE） is relatively independent industry subsystem, which starts with coal, is linked by electricity, and runs through steel, aluminum, ferroalloy industry, etc. The factor analysis, variable cluster and dynamic analysis are executed based the time series of the main ICE products＇ rates. The results show that the recurrent fluctuations of ICE contain main factnr, whieh covers elec, tricity, coal, steel, fen＇oalloy, calcium and carbide industry. Electricity industry lies at the core of the main factor. Its dynamie characters are that the relations among recurrent fluctuations of its industries are closer and closer, the accumulated risks are higher and higher. Several downstream industries in the ICE have grown at double rate of GDP for more than 7 years and they are facing the risk of adjustment in rate and policies. Under these eonditions, electricity industry must act the leading role of ICE, prevent risks spilled out from other relative industries and try to rationalize economic relations to them.

关 键 词：电力产业链 因子分析模型 灰色关联度 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]