温度关联网络稳定性分析Ⅰ——极端事件的影响  

Analysis of the stability of temperature networks part Ⅰ—the influence of extreme events

作　　者：王晓娟[1,2] 龚志强[1,3] 周磊[1] 支蓉[1,4] 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学物理科学与技术学院,扬州225002 [2]常熟理工学院物理与电子工程学院,常熟215500 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京100029 [4]国家气候中心,气候诊断预测室,北京100081

出　　处：《物理学报》2009年第9期6651-6658,共8页Acta Physica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(批准号:40675044);国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号:2006CB400503);国家科技支撑计划(批准号:2007BAC03A01;2007BAC29B01)资助的课题~~

摘　　要：基于极端温度值、强El Niňo/La Niňa年、温度变化关键区域和极端事件频发年四个方面,研究了时间和空间上的极端事件对温度关联网络性质的影响及网络性质相对稳定的可能条件.结果表明,滤除一定比例的极端温度会在一定程度降低网络的连通性,P=0.1和0.9时对应温度关联网络性质变化的拐点,极端低温和高温的界定可以控制在百分比为0.1所对应的温度;La Niňa年长程连边数较El Niňo年明显增加,遥相关作用比较显著,温度变化的关联稳定性较El Niňo年更好一些.热带地区温度变化正常年份的长程和短程连边数均较少,气候变化的各种信号不明显,更难判断气候变化的中长期特征.极端高温事件频发年对网络性质的影响较小,极端低温事件频发年网络长程连边数明显增加,其关联稳定性较极端事件频发年和正常年更强;四方面的研究均表明对网络性质影响最大的区域为180°E—80°E,15°N—15°S的赤道中东太平洋区,网络能否保持稳定的关键是该区域是否会受到重大外强迫等作用.The spatial and temporal stability of temperature correlation network is analyzed based on extreme temperature,El Niňo/La Niňa abnormal year,key areas of temperature change and high frequent year of extreme respectively.Results show that,the connectivity of network decreases by filtering out extreme temperature,property of the network at the inflexion P=0.1 or 0.9,might be defined as the of boundary of extreme temperature.La Niňa network possesses more significan links and higher clustering coefficient than the El Niňo network,which indicates that the former is more communicative and more stable than the latter.And based on these statistical properties,we verified that during La Niňa years predictability is higher compared to El Niňo years and normal years.Furthermore,we also verified that during high frequency years of extreme high temperature predictability is higher than high frequent years of extreme low temperature and normal years.We also come to the conclusion that middle and east tropical Pacific（180°E—80°E,15°N—15°S） are key areas of global temperature changes,and exlernal forces acting on these areas have great effect on global temperature change.

关 键 词：极端事件 强ElNiňo/LaNiňa年 极端事件频发年 稳定性 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TP311.12[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]