一种简单易行的短期负荷预测系统  

A KIND OF SIMPLE AND EASY SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING SYSTEM

作　　者：张昊[1,2] 吴捷[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]广东省科学院自动化工程研制中心 [2]华南理工大学电力学院

出　　处：《电网技术》1998年第7期14-17,共4页Power System Technology

基　　金：广东省重点攻关项目;广东省科学院院长青年基金

摘　　要：文章研究一种简单易行的自适应模糊预测系统，系统的规则集经过历史数据样本集的自适应学习获得，学习算法每天启动运行一次。文中首先阐述从数据信息中获得模糊规则的一般性方法，然后给出具体、易懂的预测模型设计。以电力短期负荷预测（ＳＴＬＦ）为应用背景，设计了一系列实验加以研究和改进。在实验基础上给出系统的评价，得出一些有意义的结论。This paper studies a kind of adaptive fuzzy forecasting system which is simple in structure and easy in accomplishment. Fuzzy forecasting rule set of the system is achieved through adaptive learning from historical data samples.The learning algorithm is started once a day. Generalized algorithm of obtaining fuzzy rules from data information is described first, then a naive and understandable forecast model is designed. Taking short term power load forecasting as application background, a series of experimental research is put forward and some evaluations and conclusions are acquired based on this research.

关 键 词：模糊系统 自适应学习 短期负荷预测 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]