应用指数平滑技术预测水平变形  

APPLICATION EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL FORECASTING HORIZONTAL DEFORMATION

作　　者：李遵建 苏道武 

机构地区：[1]泰安市市政工程处,山东泰安271000 [2]东阿县水务局,山东东阿252201

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第4期559-562,共4页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：本文应用指数平滑模型根据其观测值的数据特点,选取趋势型三次指数平滑模型,并依据[PVV]最小准则选用合适的平滑系数值进行计算,预测了基坑某监测点的水平变形。结果表明,该方法与[VV]最小准则相比可使预测值与实际位移值之间的误差更小,与二次曲线拟合相比更加稳定。This paper applies exponential smoothing model according to the observation data characteristics, Selects trend of the thrice exponential smoothing model, and according the [ PVV ] smallest criterion to select appropriately smooth coefficient, has forecast the special point horizontal deformation quantity. The result indicated that, this method comparing with [ VV ] criterion may cause smaller error value between the forecast value and the actual deformation value, and may be more stable comparing with the quadratic curve fitting.

关 键 词：指数平滑模型 水平变形 平滑系数 曲线拟合 

分 类 号：TU169[建筑科学—建筑理论]